When the Proof Score says 70, it has happened 70.53% of the time.
MEASURED ACROSS 388,262 PUBLISHED PROOF SCORES
AVERAGE GAP · AS OF AUG 10, 2026
0.88
Between what we said and what happened, averaged across all 20 score bands. It moves — we publish it either way.
MEASURING SINCE JULY 2026
Never reset. Every Proof Score since this date is included, whether it helped us or not. Proof Scores freeze at the start of the game — the record only accrues.
THE PROOF
Every Proof Score band, against reality.
DOT SIZE = SAMPLE IN THAT BAND · SHADING = ±3, FOR SCALE
BANDSCOREDGAP
0–51,204−1.8
5–102,861+1.2
10–155,417−0.6
15–208,930+0.9
20–2513,286−1.1
25–3018,552+0.4
30–3529,107−0.8
35–4034,441+1.0
40–4538,269−0.3
45–5039,984+0.6
50–5539,118−0.9
55–6036,206+0.5
60–6532,559−0.4
65–7029,013+0.7
70–7520,166+0.5
75–8015,872−1.3
80–8511,404+1.6
85–907,218−2.1
90–953,507+2.4
95–1001,148−2.7
All twenty bands, misses included. A page that only showed the good ones would be worth less than this one.
// EVERY SCORE, PUBLISHED
All 388,262. No filters, no re-sorting.
Every Proof Score we published pregame since July 2026, on games the model had never trained on, settled in public — won, lost, or void, every one kept. Never re-scored with hindsight. A ledger you can re-sort is a ledger you can cherry-pick from; this one, you can’t.
388,262 PUBLISHED PROOF SCORESNEWEST FIRST
MON AUG 10 · 11,204 SCORES
AUG 10
Aaron Judge
OVER 1.5 Total Bases
WONSCORE →
AUG 10
A’ja Wilson
UNDER 22.5 Points
LOSTSCORE →
AUG 10
Shohei Ohtani
OVER 0.5 Home Runs
WONSCORE →
AUG 10
Kelsey Plum
OVER 3.5 Assists
WONSCORE →
SCROLLING LOADS MORE — ALL 388,262 ARE HERE
The Proof Score behind each row lives in the app. Player, line and result are public facts — the Proof Score is what we add.
When the Proof Score says 70, it has happened 70.53% of the time.
MEASURED ACROSS 388,262 PUBLISHED PROOF SCORES
AVERAGE GAP · AS OF AUG 10, 2026
0.88
Between what we said and what happened, averaged across all 20 score bands. It moves — we publish it either way.
THE PROOF
Every Proof Score band, against reality.
Points on the diagonal mean the number was honest. The shading marks ±3 points, for scale.
DOT SIZE = SAMPLE IN THAT BAND · PROOF SCORE → REALITY
AUDIT THE 20-BAND LEDGER▾
All twenty bands, including the ones that run under. Publishing the misses is why the rest is believable.
MEASURING SINCE
JULY 2026
Never reset. Every Proof Score since this date is included, whether it helped us or not. Proof Scores freeze at the start of the game — the record only accrues.
// EVERY SCORE, PUBLISHED
All 388,262. No filters, no re-sorting.
Every Proof Score we published pregame since July 2026, on games the model had never trained on, settled in public — won, lost, or void, every one kept. Never re-scored with hindsight.
388,262 PROOF SCORESNEWEST FIRST
MON AUG 10 · 11,204 SCORES
Aaron Judge
OVER 1.5 Total Bases · AUG 10
WONSCORE →
A’ja Wilson
UNDER 22.5 Points · AUG 10
LOSTSCORE →
Shohei Ohtani
OVER 0.5 Home Runs · AUG 10
WONSCORE →
Kelsey Plum
OVER 3.5 Assists · AUG 10
WONSCORE →
SCROLLING LOADS MORE — ALL 388,262 ARE HERE
The Proof Score behind each row lives in the app. Player, line and result are public facts — the Proof Score is what we add.